By Zha Wen
Improving the domestic security situation, attracting overseas investment and creating more local employment opportunities are Philippine President Duterte’s commitments to Philippine voters. Duterte needs China’s help in specific issues as well as its diplomatic support.
Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine president, embarks on his state visit to China on Tuesday. Duterte has fully preheated this visit, which can be seen from his itinerary. As early as the East Asia Summit at the beginning of September, Duterte received an invitation from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, he later decided to visit China before visiting Japan, which made China the first country Duterte will visit outside the ASEAN1 countries, reflecting his emphasis on Sino-Philippine relations.
On October 7, Philippine Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana confirmed that the Philippines had “suspended” joint patrol with US in the South China Sea, showing the Duterte government’s respect for China’s security interests. Through these well-meaning signals, Duterte has prepared a gift for China. Besides, he also has many expectations for China.
Philippine policymakers and international affairs observers have realised that the South China Sea arbitration2 has put the Philippines in an awkward position. One of the historical experiences of the ASEAN countries is that if they want to maximise the autonomy of their foreign policy and their national interests, they must balance the interests of the big powers. However, the arbitration results could have tied the Philippines to the chariot of US-Japan alliance.
More importantly, the results of the partial arbitration aggravated the nationalist sentiment of the Philippine public and greatly restricted the Duterte government’s room to maneuver in foreign policy. Although Duterte has repeatedly expressed his willingness to engage in bilateral negotiations with China over the South China Sea issue, his government has taken a vague position on whether bilateral negotiations should be conducted within the framework of the arbitration results due to domestic pressure.
Of all the issues linked to the South China Sea, fishing rights provoke most of the Philippines’ concerns.
In recent years, despite the rapid growth of the Philippine economy, the poverty rate has risen, and about 40 percent of the Philippine population is still facing food shortages. The fishing industry has created about 1.61 million jobs for the Philippines and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data shows that 38.7 percent of Philippines’ animal protein intake is from fish. In this context, many Philippines equal “the right to fish” to “the right to live”.
[ms-protect-content id=”3162″]Duterte’s biggest expectation is to make a breakthrough on the issue of fishing rights. Achieving a breakthrough on this issue can not only show his diplomatic skills, but also quell nationalism in the Philippines, offering greater policy space.
In fact, during the process of realising his domestic political goals, Duterte needs support from China in many aspects. Improving the domestic security situation, attracting overseas investment and creating more local employment opportunities are Duterte’s commitments to Philippine voters. Over the past several months, Duterte has launched a vigorous campaign against drug-related crimes. Despite gaining an overwhelming majority of people’s support at home, he was criticised by the US and other Western countries for human rights violations.
Duterte needs China’s help in specific issues as well as its diplomatic support. When visiting Indonesia after the East Asia Summit, Duterte made a speech to express his thanks to China for helping the Philippines establish drug treatment centres. If the Chinese and Philippine police can enhance cross-border cooperation, strengthen information sharing and joint actions, it will further promote bilateral relations. Furthermore, Duterte also wants to thaw ties with China so as to introduce more investment in infrastructure.
On the Chinese side, the Philippines will take over from Laos as president of ASEAN in 2017. In this sense, China should pay more attention to its relationship with the Philippines. Improving Sino-Philippine relations from fisheries to international police cooperation will greatly ease the pressure on China’s peripheral diplomacy.
However, it’s worth noting that the present bilateral relations remain subject to territorial disputes. Chinese economic benefits to the Philippines may not be able to successfully bring about the resolution of political issues. In contrast, Chinese major investment projects in the Philippines may face higher political risk. Therefore, whether it be participating in large-scale infrastructure projects or providing more financial assistance to the Philippines, the Chinese government and enterprises should advance gradually and cautiously.
The article was originally published in the Global Times on 17 October 2016.
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About the Author
Zha Wen is a lecturer in the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University.
References
1. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/996882.shtml
2. http://www.globaltimes.cn/daily-specials/outh-China-Sea-arbitration-case/index.html
